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Mid-Year Outlook 2025

Xavier Baraton

US exceptionalism had three dimensions – strong GDP relative to the rest of the G10, extraordinary returns in stock markets, and the strength (and hedging service) of the US dollar. Each of these features is either challenged or reversed by recent events and the changing economic regime.

We explore:

Volatile Market Narratives
Volatile Market Narratives
A feature of the current system, not a bug.
Safety substitutes
Safety substitutes
As traditional safe havens have become less effective, it’s time to look at new ways to protect your portfolio.
End of exceptionalism
End of exceptionalism
Asset classes that have been overlooked by investors outside of the US come into focus.

Discover our 2025 Mid-Year Investment Outlook Report

Entering an era defined by greater political uncertainty, unpredictable inflation, and realignments in how countries trade and invest globally demands a reassessment of old assumptions and an examination of New Rules.

In our Report, we bring you valuable insight into this fast-evolving landscape. We look at the US’s diminishing dominance, its impact on European and Asian markets, and address some of your most pressing questions including implications for your portfolio structure. We introduce four key themes to consider:

  • Volatile market narratives 
    Uncertainty becomes a feature of the system, not a bug.
  • Safety substitutes
    As traditional strategies like the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio are challenged, building a resilient portfolio means going beyond the usual asset classes.
  • End of exceptionalism
    For years, US markets have dominated global investing, but that era – often called ‘US exceptionalism’ – is starting to shift.
  • Global to local
    Country correlations are likely to fall which creates a strong argument for more granularity in country allocation (notably with emerging markets).

Download the report

This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice.

Risk warning

The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any views and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. We accept no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission. The information provided does not constitute any investment recommendation in the above mentioned sectors, asset classes, indices or currencies.

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