- For the past two years, eurozone growth has steadily softened on the back of persistent policy uncertainty. Lingering tariff threats have taken an increasing toll on business confidence and trade dynamics. Still favorable labor markets, and further monetary easing have supported consumer spending so far.
- Looking ahead into 2020, and supposing these balancing effects keep working, eurozone GDP growth would remain just below the potential rate, and stabilize close to 1.0 per cent yoy on average (Bloomberg consensus as of 11/12/2019). This projection is fragile, as it relies either on further monetary accommodation, or a rapid resolution on trade policies.
- On the monetary side, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a strategic review, with climate-change considerations.
- On future trade policies, lingering restrictions seem unlikely to be clarified any time soon. Given the subdued economic outlook, the EU institutions are responding with policy coordination on all fronts, using investment-friendly measures and structural reforms, as well as monetary accommodation.
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